Outlook 2020

Outlook 2020

What it means—in plain English In 2020 the world economy is likely to extend its longest expansion on record. Inflation has defied forecasts by staying low. Don’t count on that changing anytime soon. The biggest risks are political, not economic. Partly, that reflects a resilient world economy. Mostly, it reflects the potential for harm wrought… Continue Reading

Restoring Central Banks’ Credibility

Restoring Central Banks’ Credibility

The old central-bank playbook of slashing interest rates to spur consumption, investment, and employment has become less effective since the 2008 financial crisis. Yet without effective tools and the public’s confidence, central banks will be unable to rise to the occasion when the next recession arrives. Continue Reading

Dystopia Is Arriving in Stages

Dystopia Is Arriving in Stages

Originally published at Project-Syndicate.org | December 31, 2019 Science fiction has a warning about developing mind-reading technology without any proper framework for how to control it. It should be heeded. Continue Reading

The US economy’s strange decade

The US economy’s strange decade

Weak productivity growth helps to explain the continued robust rates of job creation in the United States, as well as workers’ sluggish wage gains. If left unresolved, the productivity malaise will ensure that the current expansion remains uniquely unbalanced and unhealthy. Continue Reading

What to expect from 2019’s ‘post-peak’ economy

What to expect from 2019’s ‘post-peak’ economy

Originally published to CNN Business | December 9, 2018 Twelve months ago, investors were giddy.Markets were buoyant, supported by synchronous global growth and market-friendly US policies, including freshly minted corporate tax cuts and deregulation.What a difference a year makes. As 2018 draws to a close, investors are unsettled, volatility is spiking and most portfolios are… Continue Reading

The Dollar’s Rebound Is More Mystery Than Economics

The Dollar’s Rebound Is More Mystery Than Economics

Originally published at Bloomberg.com | May 1, 2018 The dollar is staging a comeback. Pundits are out in full force, suggesting this might finally be the end of its recent weakness and the start of a strengthening trend they have been predicting for more than a year. They may be right, but in my career spanning… Continue Reading